AJAX Office is Everywhere!

Wow. In the past three days I have bumped into an alpha or beta Web-incarnation for every Microsoft desktop product - several have multiple startups attacking the $11B on the desktop. Just got off the phone with yet another one. Most are AJAX, some are Flash- or Flex-based.

The simple conclusion is that 'free' web-based versions will kill desktop versions. Nope. Outlook wasn't killed by free web-based mail. Don't get me wrong. I think the Office Suite is dead meat. But not because web clones will kill them.

The real problem with desktop apps is no one works at their desktop anymore. I remember the Office of the Future initiative at XEROX PARC 25 years ago. (Almost took a summer research job there then. But went to Oroweat instead, to make money). PARC's vision was the paperless office. But what really has happened is the Desktopless Office. I wish I could trademark the term Net Work because that's what people do now -- the Net is integral to nearly every dimension of individuals' Work.

Twenty years ago I had desks with files and drawers. Now my desk is merely a pedestal for my computer. My computer's "desktop" is really a pedestal for my browser -- something to place my browser on so I can use it.

Microsoft's product suite (and, more importantly, it's revenue model) is tied to selling software for users to make their virtual desktops "more productive." But the productivity bottleneck is not longer me or you, it is the connection between us. That's why we are on the Net so much; send email so much; talk on the phone so much. And that's why a better, new, cool UI on Word, Excel, Visio, Outlook, Powerpoint, Access, etc. doesn't matter much. (I am still using Office 2000 on my PC and Office 2003 on my Macs; but I have the latest versions of 3 browsers on each one). There may be an upgrade cycle for Office which will boost short term earnings, but there is a much bigger migration cycle as people do Net Work instead of Desktop Work. And the smartest developers of the AJAX Office are capitalizing on this.

Some things to watch:
Writely
Bindows
Gliffy
Numsum
Meebo
Zimbra Evan Wilner corrected me about Zimbra "The new OpenSource e-mail system Zimbra is no more a "web-based" application than Microsoft Exchange...It certainly is true that Zimbra has an AJAX web client---but Exchange also supports web based client access."

and these are just the ones I can talk about....

Comments

[Pete Cashmore]

Peter, your last few posts have been right on target - it's obvious that you really "get it".

I think the keyword here is "collaboration". I don't use Writely because it's necessarily better than Word (at least, not yet - sorry guys!), but because of its fantastic collaborative ability. And anyone who has ever worked in a corporate environment will know what a headache it is to have multiple versions of a Word document being emailed around.

Microsoft is actually having a go in this space, too. They're working on Kahuna (new Hotmail) which is at mail.start.com. This is likely to be a Gmail-like app,so it could be that the eventual replacement for Outlook is still a Microsoft product.

[Martin Tibbitts]

I'm looking forward to exploring Ajax

Martin Tibbitts

[jed adams]

just wanted to say thanks for this blog .
i'd often wondered about VC and how it all works .
thanks , this blog gives me a look into that world

[Abhay Kumar]

'Net Work' vs. 'Desktop Work'

That's an interesting comparison. I really think that the driving force for all of this is that we are realzing every day what else we can compartmentalize and miniaturize. Take our mobile devices, for example. We couldn't have enough with text messages and SMS on our phones so developers added email and instant messaging. There are even phones running Office apps including Outlook, Word and Excel so you can download the attachment on your email, edit it, and reply with your edits. This is where web-based tools really can shine as it reduces the footprint of these applications. However, I don't know if current GPRS networks are stable enough to support such persistant connections. I'm sure some one else could enlighten me on this.

[Johnathan]

This sounds like what Sun has said for decades (?) now - "The Network Is The Computer".

Granted the clients are a little "fatter" than in Sun's vision; but most of the commonly used functions are transitioning to the Web, which means in another, say, five years, many current "fat" clients could probably be replaced with "thin" network computers and hardly anyone would notice or complain for day to day office work.

Yes, creatives and those who really need a lot of data processing power will still want a traditional desktop computer, but many others will get along fine without it.

[Peter Rip]

Yes SUN started saying this in the 80s' (and they were right), but having the apps in the cloud is only one facet of the network being the computer.

[macewan]

like most geeks I was extremely excited yesterday, this was before watching the 45 minute Sun infomercial - quite the let down

maybe it is going to take something like writely or ning

[Sumanth Raghavendra]

Peter,
While you make a great point in saying that the productivity bottleneck is in the connection between people, positing that a Net Office is the panacea is non-sequitur...wouldn't a solution that seamlessly enable people to collaborate from within their current productivity applications make a lot more sense? Such a solution would provide a "collaborative productivity" aspect without expecting people to move out of their familiar user experiences...
Your thoughts on this?
Sumanth

[Scott Dietzen]

So I'm curious. Doesn't every stateful AJAX application have server-side components that are written in web application server environments---Java/Tomcat, PHP, and so on? It seems to me AJAX just defines the client architecture (Javascript, CSS, etc.) and communication model (XML) to the server, and hence I don't grok the rationale for excluding servers like Zimbra and Exchange. Granted I have a vested interest, but I think this would make more sense if you defined what you mean by AJAX if your constaining the server as well as the client.

[Ray Deck]

Great blog!

I don't get why this is a good thing. Why would I limit my ability to do word processing or spreadsheet work to when I am on the network? Also, isn't this mainframe computing for a new generation? Why do those economics make sense?

There is a lot of good that comes from the decreasing costs of communication, but trying to compete with Microsoft Word through a server-based service sounds like competing with pet stores through ecommerce - a poor fit. The good fits are where money is to be made.

[Ray Deck]

After re-reading (learn to preview!) I realize that my previous post seems to focus on the straw man (web clones) that Peter strikes down at the top of the post.

But I would still ask, what is brought to the table by moving word processing to the web? I understand the collaborative increase from Writely, but it's not clear to me why an application that is dead without connectivity is superior to one that can use connectivity as-needed (which seemsp arallel to the mainframe vs client-server dichotomy of the 80s). And as the connectivity-only platform, why is the web browser the platform for work, rather than web services bringing more richness to client-side applications on demand, and when available?

[Scott Dietzen]

An obvious p.s. to my prior comment:
Servers can be hosted so that the enduser's experience is entirely AJAX. Ultimately the end-user's experience is not impacted by where the associated server is hosted (on-premises, by a 3rd-party, or by the AJAX app. vendor itself). Sorry I couldn't get it right the first time.

[Kyle Brown]

I'm a huge proponent of web-based collaboration - but why office suites? Are you really going to collaboratively edit a document on the web?

Don't get me wrong, I hate the software business model (I'm founder of a hosted collaboration technology for disease research) but "collaboration" is about sharing your documents, ideas, discoveries with others - not about collaborating on building out documents.