Who is Google's Next Victim?

A few months ago I posted the following

Google has built a stunning platform for the rapid development and deployment of applications on a worldwide scale.  They have repeatedly taken revenue-generating software categories and made them free, media-supported businesses.  This leverages their economies of scale in delivery and their ability to aggregate, segment, and monetize audiences.   Free is a very effective appeal for a CFO or small business owner looking to reduce IT expense. It may not work for Exxon and GM.  But it doesn’t have to.  If it works for millions of small businesses around the world, it works.

Google is rumored to be working on a slew of new applications for delivery later this year and early next.  I have no idea what they may be or if they really are.  But I would speculate that some are targeted at business use cases that revolve around people, time, content, and communication.   After all, they have Google Home Page, Calendar, Writely, and Gtalk/Mail today.  It is not hard to begin to package them as business process applications and collaboration portals.  Google already has a significant developer community using Google’s APIs for creating mashups with other web services. Motivating them to redirect toward business use cases is a natural extension of  the present. Once you own the process, you own the Control. If the View is the Web, Control is free web-based application, Model will follow.

It is completely conceivable that the future of Web 2.0 in the Enterprise looks a lot like Google 2.0.

Yesterday Google announced it has acquired Jotspot and is making their applications free.  Hmm... So Google is squarely going after horizontal business applications with the Googleplex.  Where do they go next?

Google isn't really trying to capture Microsoft's market value.  I think they are focusing on everyone else first. It is now well understood that Ebay's market cap is squarely in their gunsites with Gpay, Gbase, and Adsense.  Who is Google's next prey?

If I were Eric Schmidt, I'd be salivating over an Google-delivered Intuit killer.

And why not?  It is both consumer and small business focused.  It has high value user data that is suitable for targeting.  It is the ultimately sticky application.  It further leverages Gpay.  It further leveages the small business productivity applications.  The core user base of Adwords and Adsense probably already use Intuit (Quicken or Quickbooks) for accounting. Google could close the loop between marketing, fulfillment, and payment with GBooks.

So while Google is busy re-inventing the media business with targeting and delivery technologies, they can, should, and probably are looking to find applications to inform that targeting system.  What better source of targeting data than where individuals and business are spending their money?

Comments

[MartinE]

It's interesting timing- I just read about freshbooks.com, a new company that handles invoicing online for SMEs. They not only generate email invoices, they also are capable of sending snailmail versions (BTW, I'm not associated with them at all). Any small business would tell you that they get paid faster when they send paper. This kind of thing would be a perfect Google add.
My understanding is that they (google) haven't got a clear strategy for acquiring business users for their apps. Generating revenue is an issue as biz users don't want to see ads in productivity applications. They're rarely relevant. And I don't think JotSpot is the answer- in three years they only acquired 2000 users.

[Gerald Joseph]

Interesting post. The thing that terrify Google competitors is:
1. Google's capacity for simultaneously sustaining traction in multiple markets defies imagination-Google's real mission is to redefine the web upon the axis of Google features. With this scheme they don't have to technically own every blog or every site, but they become central to every site or every blog's value proposition and monetizing strategy by offering a slew of features that are the industry standard for
furthering productivity (Google Docs, Google Calendar),
facilitating connectivity (Gtalk/Gmail),
categorizing data (Google Homepage),
emphasizing business productivity (Google/Jotspot)
sponsoring innovations (Google API),
pioneering site monetization (Google Adsense),
etc., etc.
When Web 2.0 Startups and Blogs consider monetization strategy and site administration, Google figures prominently in the conversation.
JotSpot struggled on its own, but the technology will be huge offered free via Google. This will cannibalize any upstart's capacity to use wiki successfully as a fee-based service.

[Hugo Junot]

"GBooks" sounds about right. Another good category would be project management, in other words get an MS Project replacement integrated with GMail, Calendar, Docs, etc. It would make sense to have that integrated into "ToDo" lists, maybe on home page widgets.

With some open source project planning software out there, it wouldn't seem to far out of the believable or a Google team to rewrite one for their server architecture.

[ashkan karbasfrooshan]

Interesting post. You are right about Intuit-envy, but wrong about Google's lack of MSFT envy. It might want to steal eBay's market share (hence Google base which all but disappeared)
but Google's already 3 times more valuable than eBay... it's certainly MSFT it's after...

More:

Will Google Become the 21st Monopoly?
http://www.watchmojo.com/web/blog/?p=169

Google's Attack on MSFT Office
http://blog.hipmojo.com/?p=170

Will Google Surpass MSFT's Market Value? Maybe, in 2010:
http://www.watchmojo.com/web/blog/?p=601

Google's Next Acquisition (scroll down to second part):
http://www.watchmojo.com/web/blog/?p=674

Enjoy

[jim Forbes]

Peter,
Your belief that Intuit could be in the 10-ring of Google's sites is spot-on. I think Google has the cachet that's needed for this market and the innovation to deliver products that make a big difference for small business owners. SalesForce.com may be an even more compelling target for Google since it gives them the opportunity to deliver an upmarket ad stream for high end goods, directly to a consumer that is perceived to have a high disposable income.
great post Peter. Oh, lots of Elk in the upper end of the San Luis Valley in Co. Just got back,
Best,
Jim Forbes

[Dave]

yep... that's interesting.

however i think the vision for "Guicken" or "GBooks" has to be more than just free; should also take advantage of other Google ecosystem benefits.

whether Google or someone else does it, i think Quicken and QuickBooks are likely to be subject to competitive innovation.

[Charlie Crystle]

Did you somehow miss the deal between Intuit and Google?

http://web.intuit.com/about_intuit/press_releases/2006/09-13a.html

It would be gbetter for Google to acquire Intuit than to try to overtake it in the market. Intuit owns the Accounting channel, and Accountants are much less likely to move their customers over to Google than, say, you or I would. And many, many small businesses don't trust their critical data "out there on the web somewhere", as one friend put it to me.

[Tim]

I'm betting more of a partnership than a direct competitor -- integration into Quicken/Quickbooks.