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On taking a long term view on deep IP development and investment:

Well, ideally one wants a temporal diversification. That is, bunch of quick exits, and some long term high multiple investments as well. Traditionally with R&D there is a risk of meeting schdules. But with the average exit being around 6.5 years these days, there will be at least two effects to look for. 1) the longer time to exit will have serious effect on the LP's returns (the time to exit goes into the exponential of 1+IRR to give the required multiple). Hence the need for more defence-able assets. 2) A longer exit will give IP development "some" time cushion. It also will mean that the IP of a company will start to play a more important role in future valuations.

Properly developed and used IPs (eg licenced) also work as a good insurance during a down turn. So will the temporal diversification :-)

Happy 2008. E

I think it will payoff though, firms like Microsoft have multi-billion dollar war chests to absorb quick growing tech companies. Acquisitions are made every day now in these areas.

- Richard

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